ABOUT THIS PROJECT
AI-powered March Madness bracket predictor built on March 18, 2026. Uses Claude (Anthropic), GPT-4o (OpenAI), and Gemini (Google) in a multi-model ensemble to predict every game from the Round of 64 through the National Championship.
HOW IT WORKS
1. DATA COLLECTION
KenPom ratings, BartTorvik T-Rank, NCAA NET rankings, injury reports, beat writer intel
2. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
Each matchup is analyzed by Claude, GPT-4o, and Gemini independently. Their predictions are compared using ensemble disagreement rules.
3. CONFIDENCE FORMULA
Weighted formula: 55% model strength, 20% source agreement, 15% lineup certainty, 10% data freshness
4. CROSS-AGENT DEBATE
The 10 most uncertain picks undergo a structured debate where the AI plays devil's advocate against its own predictions. 2 picks were flipped and average confidence dropped 8.4 points, reducing overconfidence.
5. MONTE CARLO SENSITIVITY
250 simulations testing different weight combinations against 2022-2025 historical results to find optimal calibration.
6. HISTORICAL BACKTESTING
Model accuracy scored against actual tournament results from 2022-2025, spanning ultra-chalk (2025) to extreme-chaos (2023) tournaments.